#DOTA 2 NEUTRAL ITEMS PATCH#
#DOTA 2 NEUTRAL ITEMS PRO#

Many of the coefficients are zero because the data isn’t dense enough for them to create visible nuances in the target vector - suggesting that there is insufficient evidence to support these items having any impact in the result. This provides a rough ranking for the items - with significantly more data we might see some movement in the non-zero coefficients but it’s unlikely to shift drastically unless there are significant metagame and/or further balance patches. Using an ElasticNet (a regularized regression model that aims to improve on lasso and ridge techniques) we can estimate linear coefficients for each item, this measures their impact on the outcome.Ĭoefficient for shift in win% for various items. Games where one team has a lot more items than the other (for example, if the game ended before the defending team could get their Tier 2 items) are filtered out.

I’ve only considered Tier 1 and Tier 2 items for now, but will expand to more in the future. This is mapped to a y-value representing the Elo (k=32) shift based on the result of the game (a negative value represents a Dire win, and a positive value represents a Radiant victory).

1 if Radiant possess the item but Dire doesn’tīy “possess” I mean that the item has been dropped for a team and they’ve picked it up.

0 if both teams possess the item, or neither team does.

-1 if Dire possess the item but Radiant doesn’t.

#DOTA 2 NEUTRAL ITEMS PRO#

The approach I’ve looked at most recently (7.25 pro matches) is trying to map a vector (one column per item) with the following encoding: Right now there 11 tier 1 items, and each team gets dropped 4 neutral items leading to just a 10.6% chance that teams have no tier 1 item overlapping (similarly, but independently for tier 2). This is basically a further complication of a small sample: there could be a significant percent of games where both team had the same item (pushing the winrate towards 50% for it). As a result, using pure winrate can be misleading -even if you’re normalizing for the skill of the teams. Unlike heroes, the items can be duplicated and appear on both sides. The approach for neutral items is still mostly uncharted.

Most of these problems we’ve learned to either work around (normalizing variables due to team skill, and updating our confidence based on a sample size), or we accept them (it’s a highly complex game - weird stuff can happen). These concerns compound the classic problems of evaluating anything in Dota 2: it’s a highly complex game, there is inherent variance, there are not a massive number of pro matches on a patch, and teams have varied skill. “replaceability”: an item which is functionally similar to another item but slightly better totally trumps the previous item.“niche”: some are extremely good in very specific situations, and bad in most other situations.“base power”: some items are on a fundamental level “good” or “bad” from a power level perspective.When talking about the power-level of neutral items there are certain overarching concerns:

#DOTA 2 NEUTRAL ITEMS PATCH#

Neutral items are the latest really significant step in Dota 2, joining the game in 7.23 (along with outposts and hero-couriers), refined in 7.24 (shrines removed, outposts relocated, dedicated neutral item slot), and then survived their first big balance patch in 7.25.

Dota 2 neutral items